How’s The Market Westchester?
The #1 question realtors get asked is “how’s the market?” It’s such a big question. I almost never know where to start. Different people think different criteria tell the story. Below are seven that I think best answer the question, along with trend graphs as of October 31st.
Average Sales Price
Westchester’s average sale price for single family homes has been flat-ish for the last few months, currently hanging out at just over $1.3M.
Westchester, however, is a big place with more than a half dozen distinct neighborhoods, each with their own pricing eccentricities. Kentwood’s average single family home price, for example, is a hair over $1.5M, while Osage’s is a hair over $1M. There are distinct price differences even within the neighborhoods. Contact us for details and/or to request custom graphs.
In Westchester, there were 41 new single family listings in October compared to 39 new single family listings in September. As you can see from the first trend graph below, Westchester tends to follow an annual pattern when it comes to people listing their 90045 properties for sale. Sellers start listing in January and the trend picks up momentum until June, when it starts tapering off.
This year looks a little different so far. Could it be that sellers are starting to think it’s their last chance to get top dollar in this market cycle? Time will tell. The second graph below shows the numbers on a 12 month rolling basis to smooth out trend line, including seasonal variations.
Months Supply is a good indicator of a sellers’ versus a buyers’ market. Typically, a market that favors sellers has less than six months of supply (listings). Westchester took a huge leap up in October from 1.8 months supply to 3.0 months supply, but remains solidly in seller territory. Still, it’s hard to ignore how fast Westchester jumped in a month.
In a seller’s market, buyers can expect to pay their own closing costs and other negotiable amounts and they can also expect competition from other buyers. If the current trend holds, Westchester is definitely headed for buyer territory. If this happens, sellers need to make sure they hire listing agents who understand the changing market. No longer will any slacker be able to put a listing in the MLS and get multiple offers, with no other marketing efforts.
On the other hand, we were in this same position exactly two years ago. Pre-election jitters? Time will tell. In fact, we should know in 30 days. 😃
Price reductions are a mixed bag as far as being an indicator of any trend, but people still love to talk about this metric.
Sometimes a seller starts out unrealistic and has to “right-price.” Sometimes the agent is from out of area and doesn’t know that Kentwood prices are higher than Loyola Village. It takes some real analysis of the price reductions to see if there is a broader trend working.
We saw 8 price reductions in Westchester. Contact us if you want the list, although many of the properties are under contract already. As you can see from the graph below, most Westchester homes do sell at their list price, once they get “right-priced.” Note that this particular graph is a 12 month rolling average to show the more general trend.
Price Per Square Foot
The average price per square foot is on a steady upward march in Westchester and has been since early 2012, currently hanging out at $725/ft for single family homes in Westchester on a rolling 12 month average basis (shown in the graph below). The actual PPSF for October was $735/ft.
I bet you wish you’d gotten in in 2012 at $406/ft, right? 😃
Different property types and bed/bath configurations likely have their own average PPSF. Contact us if you want to see a graph for a particular property type or bed/bath configuration or sub-neighborhood of Westchester.
Days On Market
Days on market can be an indicator of demand. If DOM is trending down, properties are moving faster (higher demand). In Westchester, DOM has been pretty flat most of this year at 28 days. 2017 was crazy, but 2018 has been stable. 28 days on market is still a great number and an indicator of strong demand.
Back on Market
One property fell out of escrow in Westchester in the last seven days. Properties that have fallen out of escrow sometimes represent a great opportunity for a bargain. Contact us for details.
Assumptions & Other Markets
This report was written for single family homes in the Westchester community of Silicon Beach. Similar reports can be generated on request for neighborhoods and other carve outs within Westchester 90045. For example, in Westchester there are significant price differences between the neighborhoods, notably east of Sepulveda vs. west of Sepulveda and north of Manchester vs. south of Manchester. We can generate reports for other property types, too! Contact us for custom reports.